Whether you get a refund or owe money in April comes down to one comparison: the tax you actually owe for the year versus what you’ve already paid through withholding, plus any refundable credits. This estimator projects your 2026 federal withholding to the end of the year from your latest pay stub and applies the 2026 IRS rules — brackets, standard deductions, the child tax credit, the earned income credit, and the new Schedule 1-A deductions for seniors, tips, overtime and car loan interest.
How to use the tax refund estimator
- Choose your filing status and enter your expected full-year wages (W-2 box 1), other income and any adjustments.
- Pick the standard or itemized deduction, and say whether anyone on the return is 65 or older.
- Enter any qualified tips, overtime premium pay or car loan interest that qualifies for the new deductions.
- Enter your children under 17, other dependents, EITC qualifying children if different, and any other credits.
- From your latest pay stub, enter the federal tax withheld so far, the withholding per paycheck and the paychecks left this year, plus any estimated payments.
How the refund is calculated
The child tax credit is $2,200 per child under 17 and the credit for other dependents is $500, phasing out by $50 per $1,000 of income above $200,000 ($400,000 joint). Up to $1,700 per child is refundable when tax is too low to use the full credit, limited to 15% of earnings above $2,500.
Worked examples
A head of household with one child earns $62,000 in wages. Pay stubs show $1,800 withheld so far, with $250 withheld from each of six remaining paychecks.
Taxable income = 62,000 − 24,150 standard deduction = $37,850
Tax = 1,770 + 12% × 20,150 = $4,188; minus the $2,200 child tax credit = $1,988
Withholding = 1,800 + 6 × 250 = $3,300 → refund $1,312
Withholding about $219 less from each remaining paycheck would bring the refund close to zero.
A head of household with two children earns $28,000. Tax before credits is only $385, so the child tax credit wipes it out and up to $1,700 per child becomes refundable: $3,400. The earned income credit adds $6,450.43 ($7,316 maximum, reduced by 21.06% of the income above $23,890). With $1,140 withheld, the estimated refund is about $10,990.
2026 numbers used
| Item | 2026 amount |
|---|---|
| Standard deduction | $16,100 single · $32,200 joint · $24,150 head of household |
| Child tax credit | $2,200 per child, up to $1,700 refundable |
| Credit for other dependents | $500 each |
| EITC maximum | $664 · $4,427 · $7,316 · $8,231 (0, 1, 2, 3+ children) |
| Senior deduction (65+) | $6,000 each, phasing out above $75,000 ($150,000 joint) |
| Tips / overtime / car loan interest | up to $25,000 / $12,500 ($25,000 joint) / $10,000 |
Sources: IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32, the IRS child tax credit page, and the 2026 draft Schedule 1-A.
Tips for a more accurate estimate
- Use your latest pay stub. Year-to-date withholding plus the per-paycheck amount is the best predictor of your total.
- Include all jobs. Two jobs, or a working spouse, often lead to under-withholding because each employer withholds as if it were the only income.
- Self-employed? Add self-employment tax separately with the self-employment tax calculator.
- Bonus coming? The bonus tax calculator shows what will be withheld from it.
For a bracket-by-bracket view of your tax, use the federal income tax calculator.
This is an estimate based on 2026 IRS figures, not tax advice. It does not include capital gains rates, self-employment tax, the Additional Medicare Tax, education or premium tax credits, the AMT or state taxes. Eligibility rules for credits and deductions are simplified.
Frequently asked questions
How is a tax refund calculated?
Your refund is everything you paid in — federal withholding from paychecks plus estimated payments — plus refundable credits such as the earned income credit and the refundable part of the child tax credit, minus your total tax for the year. If the result is negative, that is the amount you owe.
What is the earned income credit for 2026?
Per IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32, the maximum EITC for 2026 is $664 with no qualifying children, $4,427 with one, $7,316 with two and $8,231 with three or more. It phases out as income rises — for example, it disappears at $58,629 of income for a single parent with two children — and is not available if investment income exceeds $12,200.
How do the new tips and overtime deductions work?
For 2025 through 2028, workers in tipped occupations can deduct up to $25,000 of qualified tips, and workers can deduct the premium part of qualified overtime pay — up to $12,500, or $25,000 on a joint return. Both phase out above $150,000 of modified AGI ($300,000 joint), are claimed on Schedule 1-A whether or not you itemize, and are unavailable to married people filing separately.
Can I deduct car loan interest in 2026?
Yes, if the loan was taken out after 2024 to buy a new vehicle for personal use whose final assembly was in the United States. Up to $10,000 of interest is deductible on Schedule 1-A, reduced by $200 for each $1,000 of MAGI over $100,000 ($200,000 joint). Leases and used cars do not qualify.
Is a big refund a good thing?
A refund means you overpaid during the year and lent the government money at no interest. Some people like it as forced savings; others prefer to adjust their Form W-4 and keep more in each paycheck. The calculator shows how much per paycheck you could change withholding to come out close to even.